Transportation Models Updates and Expansion


Marshall Miller

Additional Researchers

Lew Fulton, Andy Burke, Mark Delucchi, Miguel Jaller



We have developed two primary models, Truck Choice Model (TCM) and Transportation Transition Model (TTM) to better understand the effects of new technologies and fuels on trucks and LDVs. We plan to update, expand, and better integrate the model components.  

  • Integration of models – Include more links between models especially from the Fuels Module and vehicle cost and the Truck Choice Model. 

  • Add vehicle types – Presently the models have two BEV ranges. We would discuss with STEPS members and add a third range (maybe 120, 200, and 250 or so).  We would add plug-in vehicles to the truck portion of the models. We would add a BEV to long-haul trucks. 

  • Fully characterize renewable hydrogen pathways, including cost and potential role of excess renewable generation of hydrogen. 

  • Add other fuel types – We would consult STEPS members to understand what additional fuels could be useful (e.g. DME, ammonia) 

  • Additional model runs – We would add more scenarios and sensitivities to our analysis 

  • Environmental/Social costs – Presently the only environmental output is GHG emissions. We would add criteria pollutant emissions, water quality impacts, and energy-security impacts, and value all of these in dollars to produce an estimate of the full social cost.   

We will calibrate the models and conduct a full analysis at the US level. We have started this project but have paused it to get the California study finished, in part to make the next phase of calibration easier and build it on a stronger foundation.  We will also integrate spatial modeling with our two models and link this project with SF project 6 (Spatial Analyses of Freight Patterns) and EF project 2 (Spatial modeling of CA light- and heavy-duty vehicle travel and refueling patterns)